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"Evolution-like," wisdom of crowds

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"Evolution-like," wisdom of crowds Empty "Evolution-like," wisdom of crowds

Post  SBonthu Wed Apr 22, 2009 11:59 am

Article: http://karmatics.com/docs/evolution-and-wisdom-of-crowds.html

This author of this article refers to Wikipedia, Prediction markets, and Recommendation systems, as three separate systems, each of which has strong similarity to Darwinian evolution, each of which seems to elicit a "but it just can't work" response.

Wikipedia -
Wikipedia can be edited by absolutely anyone, then how how much of it is completely accurate? In the article, the author debates "intelligent people who simply reject that Wikipedia can be accurate or reliable". "The science journal Nature published a study in 2005 concluding that Wikipedia fares quite well when compared to Encyclopedia Britannica in terms of accuracy. A study by IBM in 2004 found that vandalism is usually repaired extremely quickly - so quickly that most users will never see its effects. Meanwhile, Wikipedia has 10 times the amount of content as Britannica, is growing much more rapidly, and, most importantly, is being refined and improved every minute of every day."

Prediction markets -
"One of the purest examples of "wisdom of crowds" is prediction markets, where speculators can bet on the chances of future news events, such as the outcomes of sports events or political elections.
Prediction markets turn out to be remarkably accurate, typically more accurate than any individual expert can predict, as non-intuitive as it may seem. Like Wikipedia, prediction markets also tap into the power of selection, but the most dramatic similarity they share with evolution is their equilibrium seeking behavior. Imagine that lots of random people come in and make bad guesses at who will win the election. The price of the contracts will then vary significantly from what the best expert would predict, resulting in an unstable (i.e. non-equilibrium) situation."


Recommendation systems -
"Like many online vendors, movie rental service Netflix has a recommendation system: it allows users to rate movies they have watched, and, based on these ratings and the ratings of others, offers recommendations of movies the user has yet to view. This is a form of machine-learning known as collaborative filtering."

SBonthu

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Join date : 2009-04-06

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"Evolution-like," wisdom of crowds Empty Re: "Evolution-like," wisdom of crowds

Post  Tyler Davidov Mon Apr 27, 2009 12:04 am

The wisdom of the crowds theory is becoming increasingly popular in the business world. In this article, from the San Francisco Chronicle, there is a summary of various business men's plans to gain consumer feedback using the wisdom of the crowds technique.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/20/BUAF11OT6T.DTL

The theory that the aggregate responses of a large group of people is usually on the money in terms of accuracy is being incorporated more into different aspects of life, including business. Consumer feedback has been increasing over the years to a point that almost every product that hits the market today has consumer feedback. Consumer feedback not only influences the technology of the actual product, but also can be used for marketing and advertising to solidify public credibility of a product. "Customer involvement" in product development ultimately advances technology and notifies companies as to the direction to head in for the future.

Tyler Davidov

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