Swine Flu and Social Networks

Nate Silver, the statistician behind 538.com, has posted an interesting article using social networks and recent surveys to determine the number of Americans currently infected with swine flu. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/six-degrees-of-swine-flu.html When asked "Do you know someone with Swine Flu?" 3.2 % of 1,200 people responded yes. Expanding this result to the size of the entire country, the result is 33,449 infected. Because this is much higher than reported, Silver explains how the poll could be inaccurate. The most important answer is that people probably answered yes if they knew of someone, even if not directly. They are reporting from beyond their immediate social network, skewing the results.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30485593/

This is an interactive map that gives a good visual to the spread of the swine flu. It is interesting to see the stong and weak ties within the global social network; more people are found to be infected in countries closer to Mexico.